Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally.

Expected daily cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated cases with a date of infection on the 2020-03-21) can be summarised by whether cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively.

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 4: Cases with date of infection on the 2020-03-21 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 90% credible interval). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-21. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of infection (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-21.Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-21. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions

Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of infection (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-21. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-21)

Country/Region New infections Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 58 (5 – 91) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 2) 11 (3.4 – Cases decreasing)
Argentina 128 (28 – 307) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 11 (3.4 – Cases decreasing)
Australia 369 (276 – 865) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.6) 68 (9.5 – Cases decreasing)
Austria 898 (538 – 1585) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 16 (5.1 – Cases decreasing)
Belgium 2090 (1382 – 3642) Increasing 2 (1.4 – 2.4) 4.7 (3.3 – 11)
Brazil 578 (320 – 865) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 15 (5.7 – Cases decreasing)
Canada 757 (634 – 940) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 9.6 (5 – 5600)
Chile 306 (149 – 548) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.9 – 2.1) 8 (3.7 – Cases decreasing)
China 125 (52 – 172) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 53 (9 – Cases decreasing)
Czech Republic 377 (205 – 526) Increasing 1.6 (1 – 1.9) 7.5 (4.6 – Cases decreasing)
Denmark 206 (132 – 318) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 2.1) 9.4 (4.7 – 81)
Dominican Republic 279 (56 – 835) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.6 – 3.9) 4.9 (2.2 – 70)
Ecuador 210 (72 – 309) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 26 (5.6 – Cases decreasing)
Estonia 84 (31 – 145) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.8 – 2.4) 7.2 (3.2 – Cases decreasing)
Finland 105 (50 – 143) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.7) 21 (5.1 – Cases decreasing)
France 4696 (3524 – 5789) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 9.5 (5.4 – 85)
Germany 5941 (4000 – 7218) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.8) 13 (8.3 – 39)
Greece 120 (64 – 182) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 8.9 (4.7 – 31)
India 145 (76 – 244) Unsure 1.4 (0.9 – 2) 11 (5.2 – Cases decreasing)
Indonesia 187 (95 – 421) Unsure 1.6 (0.7 – 3) 9.2 (3 – Cases decreasing)
Iran 4147 (2501 – 13249) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 3) 7.7 (3 – 23)
Ireland 286 (111 – 528) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 2.2) 16 (4.9 – Cases decreasing)
Israel 780 (360 – 1879) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.9 – 2.4) 7.4 (3.5 – 120)
Italy 7853 (4883 – 16454) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.9) 18 (7.3 – Cases decreasing)
Japan 174 (113 – 314) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2.1) 6.3 (3.8 – 33)
Luxembourg 214 (130 – 329) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 25 (5.7 – Cases decreasing)
Malaysia 187 (74 – 287) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 55 (9.1 – Cases decreasing)
Mexico 198 (102 – 372) Increasing 1.8 (1.2 – 2.8) 6.3 (3.7 – 22)
Morocco 76 (28 – 191) Increasing 1.8 (1.3 – 2.6) 5.6 (2.8 – 78)
Netherlands 1266 (420 – 2185) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 1.8) 15 (3.9 – Cases decreasing)
Norway 327 (155 – 721) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 2.2) 20 (5.3 – Cases decreasing)
Pakistan 164 (50 – 350) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 1.8) 23 (4.8 – Cases decreasing)
Panama 149 (85 – 254) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.2) 9.9 (3.4 – Cases decreasing)
Peru 119 (18 – 240) Increasing 1.7 (1.1 – 2.5) 7.6 (3.1 – Cases decreasing)
Philippines 301 (150 – 713) Increasing 2.1 (1.4 – 3.7) 5 (2.5 – 41)
Poland 466 (155 – 2004) Increasing 1.9 (1 – 5.5) 6.6 (3.7 – Cases decreasing)
Portugal 994 (667 – 2149) Increasing 1.7 (1.1 – 3.3) 7.1 (3.4 – Cases decreasing)
Qatar 45 (15 – 114) Increasing 2 (0.9 – 3.1) 5.2 (2.6 – Cases decreasing)
Romania 272 (117 – 365) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2) 7.2 (4.1 – 27)
Russia 276 (116 – 440) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.8 – 2.7) 5.9 (2.7 – Cases decreasing)
Saudi Arabia 86 (33 – 148) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -26 (11 – Cases decreasing)
Serbia 184 (62 – 403) Increasing 2.2 (1.3 – 3.4) 3.9 (2.3 – 15)
Singapore 73 (40 – 114) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.8) 12 (4.5 – Cases decreasing)
South Africa 208 (84 – 396) Unsure 1.4 (0.7 – 2.1) 8.6 (3.2 – Cases decreasing)
South Korea 117 (79 – 164) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 48 (8.6 – Cases decreasing)
Spain 8458 (6218 – 10613) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 11 (6.3 – Cases decreasing)
Sweden 334 (153 – 493) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 11 (5.2 – Cases decreasing)
Switzerland 1290 (344 – 1804) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.6) 92 (7 – Cases decreasing)
Thailand 122 (60 – 176) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -35 (15 – Cases decreasing)
Turkey 2394 (588 – 5560) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.7 – 3.1) 6 (2.6 – Cases decreasing)
Ukraine 120 (48 – 167) Likely increasing 2.3 (0.8 – 3.4) 3.9 (1.9 – Cases decreasing)
United Kingdom 3076 (1601 – 4121) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2.1) 5.7 (3.7 – 14)
United States of America 21148 (14653 – 39569) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2.1) 8.5 (4.7 – 22)


Table 2: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-21) of the number of cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.